Who Will Come Out on Top in the Upcoming ‘All Blacks trial’? A Numbers Story
After an electrifying 10 weeks of Super Rugby Aotearoa, Ian foster has been bestowed with a demanding (to say the least) task at hand. Choosing an All Blacks squad to face the Wallabies in the most important Bledisloe Cup series, hopefully kicking off on the 10th of October. Even though the opening match of the series was originally decided to kick off in Wellington, due to the new COVID-19 outbreak in New Zealand, possibility of the All Blacks taking on the Wallabies on the Gold Coast is now on the table. Due to the obvious complications that rise with traveling between countries during a pandemic, the effect it can have on the upcoming Mitre 10 cup series and a warm-up fixture against a Moana Pacific side in October can be hardly overlooked. Surrounded by all these uncertainties, the anticipation and the excitement building up for the classic ‘North vs South’ clash is needed now, more than ever.
The interisland match was first played in 1897 at Wellington and became an annual encounter from 1902. Even though the matches were ceased due to WW1 and WW2 during the 1915–1918 and 1940–1942 periods, the historic event has made his presence until 1995 without any interruptions. A one-off match was later held at Dunedin’s Forsyth Barr Stadium in 2012, which was won by the South, 32–24.
Regardless of the many complaints coming in for the eligibility criteria given by Ian Foster, to stir some competition inside the AB squad, it’s hard to overlook some of the drama which will be unfolded on Saturday before our very eyes when some big names go against each other. As important as this match is, it’s just another opportunity for players who already performed well throughout the season to put the “cherry on top of the cake” and get rid of any uncertainty in Foster’s head. This made me wander as to who actually won these head to head battles in SR Aotearoa which guided me to carry out a player analysis for the the squad that’s most likely to start on Saturday, using Benjamin Franklin’s prudential algebra.
North
John Plumtree has a bunch of All Black props to choose from with Karl Tu’inukuafe, Angus Ta’avao and Ofa Tuungafasi up his sleeve combined with the 23 year olds, Alex Fidow and Ayden Johnstone. Dan Coles out for the game with his injury has made way to his Hurricanes mate, Asafo Aumua as the Hooker for North. Cap, Patrick Tuipulotu can be easily paired with either Scott Scrafton or Tupou Vaa’I for the lock pair. The selection of the backrow can be a tad bit challenging with Lachlan Boshier, Akira Ioane, Dalton Papali’i, Ardie Savea and Hoskins Sotutu to choose from.
As disappointing as it is to not see TJ and Aaron on separate teams, fighting it out for that #9 jersey, Plumtree wouldn’t have too much to think with starting Aaron and maybe bringing TJ in for the last 20 minutes of the game to really put some gas to that world class back line. Barrett coming in as the only first five-eighth in the squad will definitely come in hot, with a statement to make with Hunt and McKenzie backing him up if needed. The centre combination of Anton and Ioane will most certainly be lethal with in-form Umaga Jensen on the bench, ready to go when the opportunity beckons his way. Mark Telea, Caleb Clarke and Sevu Reece will take charge of the running duties with Damian or Hunt for the Fullback position.
South
With All Blacks Codie Taylor, Liam Coltman, Nepo Laulala, Tyrel Lomax and Joe Moody with George Bower, Andrew Makalio and Alex Hodgman taking charge of the heavy scrum duties will definitely make Brad Mooar’s and Greg Feek’s job much easier in picking a good front row against the North. Captain Whitelock will be paired with Mitchell Dunshea as Locks and both teams will have the same headache with choosing their backrows as Tom Christie, Shannon Frizell, Dillon Hunt, Reed Prinsep and Tom Sanders included in the squad.
Brad Webber will most certainly start over Crusader’s Mitchell Drummond and Richie Moúnga will take the duties of the fly-half, challenging Barrett. This will probably be the most exciting head to head clashes, which the result would also come in handy for Foster in the decision for choosing AB’s #10. Crusaders Braydon Ennor, Leicester Fainganuku, Jack Goodhue and Sio Tomkinson from the Highlanders will strengthen the center field for South, while it’s safe to say that the rest of the positions are fixed for All Blacks, Jordie Barrett, George Bridge and the young gun Will Jordan with their record line breaks and off loads during the Aotearoa.
An invaluable gem, which was hidden inside the storage room of Eden Park grounds for 37 years, will be presented to the winners of this clash and the last time it was presented to a team was in 1931(88 years ago). Almost the same in size as the Bledisloe Cup, the presentation of this trophy called the ‘loving cup’ will be a sight for sore eyes even inside an empty stadium without a crowd to cheer the winners on.
By using some highly advanced mathematics (very basic Algebra) that cannot be grasped by the mere witless, I was able to come up with a win prediction for the upcoming match. As you can see below, nothing really sums up how competitive the match is going to be from the below shown result. Anyone who’s interested in the method that I used to rate the players or doing some analysis on their own, feel free to download my excel files from here. Let’s hope for a close game this weekend and cheers!
